| Subj: | Radar measurements in Antarctica |
| Date: | 3/1/01 9:27:27 AM Pacific Standard Time |
| From: To: bardsquill@aol.com (Kent Steadman) |
|
| File: | |
Hi Kent:
The attached data is NOT from Vostok. See attached maps.
See:
http://www.ig.utexas.edu/research/projects/wais/inland/wais00-poster/wais00_main.html
It is however, part of the result from a study done in 1997/98 collecting
the same type of information with the same techniques currently in use at
Vostok. Also NSF program, run out of the Institute for Geophysics at the
University of Texas, Austin. Also done by SOAR.
I have written to Jack Holt at Austin, asking him where I might find recent
similar data, explaining that I am interested in the pole shifts. I have
collected Russian biblio data, and other notable fragments, which I will
send along later today. Very hard to find recent Vostok data. I find it
interesting (ironic) that Russia would name their data station after their
main satellite for Internet links and a space program...trying to flesh out
the connection on this fact today...scalar technology doubles as
communications equipment. I dont read Russian!! Link for vostok.net
statistics for proxy servers for first 6 months of 2000 is:
http://stat.nord.vostok.net/squid/20000610.html
ANY THOUGHTS! I will try to ORGANIZE all of this today, and send along.
ANON.
PS. I am a work at home mom, from Upstate NY, writer and proofreader. I
appreciate your candor and honesty. I like anonymity, however, since it
lets
me float freely.
| Subj: | Vostok and plate tectonics |
| Date: | 3/1/01 5:28:01 PM Pacific Standard Time |
| From: To: bardsquill@aol.com (Kent Steadman) |
|
Kent:
The following information may support Dr. Mason's issues of tectonic concern.
The ice on Antarctica is indeed melting, and the consequent uplifting of
the crustal plate would then create a very interesting rearrangement of the
global structure. Most of what we hear about is ice melt due to the ozone
depletion. There may be earthly reasons for the melting ice. The second article
describes a communications array being built to relay data faster from the
Antarctic, and the third is a press release indicating a massive upgrade
of hardware contracted to Lockheed. Whatever it is they are discovering,
it sure is getting a step up in priority status.
1) Source: NASA/Jet Propulsion
Laboratory (http://www.jpl.nasa.gov)
Date: Posted 12/15/2000
Scientists See Earth Move In Antarctica
New investigations of the spreading of Earth's crust in Antarctica may change
existing estimates of tectonic plate motion around the Pacific Ocean Basin.
Tectonic deformation in western Marie Byrd Land and the Ross Embayment area
apparently occurs as the continent separates. Possible causes of the deformation
include the separation and crustal uplift caused by isostatic rebound following
the last glacial maximum, about 14,000 years ago. Isostatic adjustment is
vertical movement caused when weight is added or subtracted from parts of
the Earth's crust. When a glacier is at its heaviest, the crust falls; as
it melts or moves from that part, the crust rises.
"It is widely accepted that the Ross Sea region is undergoing active deformation,
but the rates and causes of deformation are essentially unknown. Tectonic
extension may be occurring in the Ross Embayment during the current separation
of West and East Antarctica," said Dr. Bruce Luyendyk, principal investigator
and chair of the Geology Department, University of California Santa Barbara.
To measure isostatic rebound and tectonic deformation, researchers have installed
three autonomous, continuously recording global positioning system (GPS)
stations on outcrops in western Marie Byrd Land in concert with a series
of stations in the Transantarctic Mountains. This enables scientists to collect
data from a large area across the Ross Embayment. Data has been acquired
since 1998 and will continue to be monitored for the next several years.
Scientists plan site visits to evaluate and upgrade equipment and to collect
data.
"So far, the data indicate that spreading is occurring across the Ross
Embayment," said Dr. Andrea Donnellan, co- investigator of the project at
NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. "Future measurements will
refine the number."
The joint JPL and UCSB project brings together experts in Antarctic geology
and tectonics, tectonic geodesy, and lithospheric deformation. Funding is
from the National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs and NASA's
Office of Earth Science Enterprise, Washington, D.C. Donnellan and Luyendyk
are co-authors of a paper to be presented at the American Geophysical Union
meeting in San Francisco on December 18. JPL is managed for NASA by the
California Institute of Technology in Pasadena. More information is available
at http://geodynamics.jpl.nasa.gov/antarctica/mblproject.html .
Editor's Note: The original news release can be found at
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/releases/2000/basin.html
2) and then this:
Source:
http://geodynamics.jpl.nasa.gov/antarctica/tamproject.html
Autonomous GPS in the Transantarctic Mountains
Recent modeling of the lithospheric response to glacial loading and unloading
has determined that the Antarctic lithosphere is likely to exhibit a strong
memory of Pleistocene-Holocene deglaciation due to viscoelastic deformation
of the lithosphere. Other parameter studies reveal the importance of crustal
rheology - lithospheric thickness and mantle viscosity - in determining the
response of the lithosphere to more recent glacial cycles. These results
provide a template for designing geodetic observation strategies to constrain
the past and present state of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), and for
interpreting those observations.
Geodetic methods to monitor the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet include
high-precision Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of horizontal
and vertical deformation of the lithosphere, and high-precision measurements
of time-varying gravity, from land-based absolute gravity and satellite gravity
mapping. Permanent GPS sites on bedrock exist at only a handful of stations
around the periphery of the continent, as part of the International GPS Service.
To complement these sites, we have initiated implementation of a GPS array
in the Transantarctic Mountains (TM), which will provide data to test competing
scenarios for the melting history of the Antarctic Ice Sheet since Last Glacial
Maximum.
This array is intended to be a continuously operating
network spanning over 1000 km in the TM. A dense, campaign-style GPS
network has also been installed in the Dry Valleys/northern TM by Dr. Ian
Whillans and colleagues. Our continuous TM array is being augmented by a
local network in eastern Marie Byrd Land to be installed during this austral
summer by Drs. Bruce Luyendyk and Andrea Donnellan. Absolute gravity measurements
are being performed at various sites in Northern Victoria Land by NOAA, including
one of our GPS sites in the Dry Valleys. The upcoming Gravity Recovery and
Atmospheric Change Experiment (GRACE), to be launched by NASA in 2001, will
provide a five-year time series of gravity measurements for the entire Antarctic
continent, coupled with a synoptic view of changes in the mass of the oceans.
The ICESAT mission (launch 2001) will precisely measure the ice sheet surface
with a laser altimeter. The goal of our GPS project is to test existing scenarios
for past ice sheet behavior, and to provide key ground-based data that may
help reduce potential nonuniqueness in interpreting future space-based data
sets.
An autonomous Global Positioning System (GPS) station was installed during
the 96/97 austral summer at Mt. Coates (-77.8, 162.0) in the Dry Valleys
of Antarctica. It is the functional prototype of the planned network of
continuously operating autonomous GPS stations in the TM. A second station
was installed last season at Mt. Cox (-77.5, 162.5). Baselines between the
two sites and McMurdo are 110 km and 160 km, and cross the frontal fault
system of the TM. The purpose of the network is to measure uplift and horizontal
deformation rates associated with post-glacial rebound to sub-cm/yr precision.
This information will better constrain models of the history of
Pleistocene-Holocene Antarctic deglaciation, and its contribution to global
sea level. Predicted post-glacial rebound uplift rates are on the order of
1-2 cm/yr for the ICE-3G model in the area of the Ross Embayment and Central
Transantarctic Mountains; the rates for ICE-4G and the revised CLIMAP
reconstruction are lower, but still significant. We expect that the data
from the network will provide definitive tests of differing glacial chronologies
within five years of implementation.
The autonomous GPS stations consist of a high-precision TurboRogue GPS receiver
powered by solar panels and a wind generator, and are designed for continuous
year-round operations. The data is transmitted once daily via a radio-frequency
long range modem to McMurdo Station, where it is sent via Internet to JPL.
The data are point positioned daily as part of the JPL FLINN analysis. Thus
far, the stations have not remained online during the austral winter, which
last year was due to failure of the wind generator. This is the primary technical
challenge which we continue to address in designing and implementing the
network.
Preliminary rates have been calculated for Mt. Coates for data collected
over the last two austral summers. The rates relative to the Internationl
Terrestrial Reference Frame are ~-17 + 5 mm/yr in the north component, ~10
+ 5 mm/yr in the east component, and~ -5.5 + 10 mm/yr in the vertical; these
rates are similar to those for the site at McMurdo station. The vertical
rate, which is as yet poorly resolved but not significantly different than
zero, is not inconsistent with the predictions of all the glacial chronologies
mentioned above. The horizontal rates, which include plate motion, indicate
large residual motion relative to the no-net-rotation NUVEL-1 plate motion
model. The residual horizontal rates are inconsistent with all of the rebound
model predictions and are the subject of ongoing analysis. A longer time
series and further analysis will allow us to quantitatively address agreement
with the models.
Finally, a parameter study of late Holocene ice fluctuations demonstrates
that crustal deformation due to these younger surface mass changes is quite
sensitive to both the lithospheric thickness and mantle viscosity. In view
of the tectonic and magmatic history, and the ongoing rifting and volcanism
in West Antarctica, it is clear that more sophisticated models of the Antarctic
lithosphere may be necessary to understand geodetic observations. Advances
in modeling the lithospheric response to deglaciation, and availability of
high quality GPS observations will lay the foundation for a 3real-time2
monitoring of the mass balance of the WAIS once GRACE and GLAS come online.
Last modified on 7/3/00 by Maggi Glasscoe (Maggi.Glasscoe@jpl.nasa.gov)
3) http://news.excite.com/news/pr/010126/tx-lockheed-martin
NSF-
NSF is an independent federal agency
that supports fundamental research and education across all fields of science
and engineering, with an annual budget of nearly $4.5 billion. NSF funds
reach all 50 states, through grants to about 1,600 universities and institutions
nationwide. Each year, NSF receives about 30,000 competitive requests for
funding, and makes about 10,000 new funding awards.
For instant information about NSF, sign up for the Custom News Service. From
the toolbar on NSF¹s home page, (http://www.nsf.gov), sign up
to receive electronic versions of NSF news, studies, publications and reports.
Follow the simple sign-on procedures that guide you to your choices. Also
see NSF news products at: http://www.nsf.gov/od/lpa/start.htm,
http://www.eurekalert.org/ and
http://www.newswise.com
Updated 12:39 PM ET January 26,
2001HOUSTON, Jan. 26 /PRNewswire/ -- Officials at
Lockheed Martin announced today that the Consolidated Space Operations Contract
(CSOC) has entered into a contract agreement with Raytheon Polar Services
Company (RPSC) to provide managed IP Data services in support of the National
Science Foundation's (NSF's) Polar programs.
Under the terms of the $885,000, four-year contract, CSOC will install, operate
and maintain IP-based connectivity from the University of Miami and the COMSAT
facility at Clarksburg, MD to the RPSC Network Operations Center (NOC) in
Englewood, Colorado. CSOC will then provide dedicated and redundant T1
connectivity from the NOC to the Antarctic Polar Station via NASA's extensive
Wide Area Network, which will include standard Internet connectivity.
"The contract with Raytheon exemplifies CSOC's commitment to commercializing
government services as a cost-savings mechanism," said Doug Tighe, program
manager for CSOC. "By selling the available capacity on NASA's Wide Area
Network (WAN), we are able to revenue share with NASA, thus generating additional
commercial income to support government services."
Connectivity has been accomplished using routers connected to two dedicated,
full-time full-duplex T1 (1.544Mbps) leased circuits. The routers are capable
of supporting DS3 (45Mbps) circuit if and when RPSC desires an upgrade.
The NSF's Polar programs will utilize these CSOC services
to enable scientists to transfer, rapidly and efficiently, the large quantities
of scientific data gathered each day at the South Pole's McMurdo Ground Station.
The new capability will supplement coverage provided by NASA and U.S. Air
Force satellites.
CSOC is a $3-billion-plus contract awarded by NASA to Lockheed Martin, who
serves as the prime contractor to provide end-to-end space operations Mission
and Data Services to both NASA and non-NASA customers. CSOC manages NASA's
data collection, telemetry and communications operations that support
Earth-orbiting satellites, planetary exploration, and human space flight
activities. Services include data acquisition from spacecraft, data transmission
to end-users, data processing and storage, ground and space communications,
and mission control center operations.
CSOC is part of Lockheed Martin Space Operations (LMSO), a business unit
of Lockheed Martin Technology Services headquartered in Cherry Hill, New
Jersey. LMSO, a high-tech engineering and science services firm, employs
about 4,000 engineers, scientists and support personnel. Services include
managing CSOC; software and hardware engineering for the Space Shuttle and
International Space Station; mission operations and planning systems design,
development, and integration; and human life sciences research.
Contact: Andrea Pierce, 281-853-3395,
andrea.pierce@csoconline.com, for Lockheed Martin
Archive: Thu Mar 1 Wed
Feb 28 Tue 27 Mon 26 Sun 25 Sat 24 Fri 23
You already have most of the other information I found on your website. That's
amazing!
| Subj: | Vostok Historical |
| Date: | 3/2/01 6:47:02 AM Pacific Standard Time |
| From: To: bardsquill@aol.com (Kent Steadman) |
|
Hi Kent:
Am now finding more from earlier material. Three pieces from The Antarctic
Project dating back to 1998. Highlights
mine:
http://www.asoc.org/
Ju n e 1 9 9 8 N e w s l e t t e r V o l u m e 7 I s s u e
2
Is West Antarctica Melting?
Earlier this year, British and American scientists confirmed information
that ASOC has been reporting since early last year. Climate change has been
adversely impacting the face and the ecosystem of the Antarctic Peninsula
and the Southern Ocean. The most obvious example of this is found on the
Antarctic Peninsula where approximately 13000 square km of ice shelves have
already crumbled or melted due to a 2.5 degrees C temperature increase in
the last 50 years, the fastest rate on the planet.
In March, the Larsen B ice shelf calved a 75 miles2 (200 km2) iceberg into
the ocean. Dr. Ted Scambos, a research associate at the Cooperative Institute
for Research in Environmental Sciences, predicts the shelfís imminent
demise. When that happens, Larsen B, which, at 4800 miles2 (12000 km2), is
greater in size than all of the previous half century's icebergs combined,
will be the largest ice shelf to collapse completely. The British Antarctic
Survey (BAS) has recorded a 4.5o F (2.5o C) rise in average temperature at
Faraday Station since 1947. BAS scientists have stated that Larsen B is
"critically unstable" and is "expected to collapse in the next two years."
The collapse is expected to be "rapid and irreversible."
This disintegration is not an isolated event. Six ice shelves on the Antarctic
Peninsula have already collapsed or begun to collapse, while a pattern of
melting is spreading south. The Wordie Ice Shelf disintegrated in the late
1980s. In 1995, Larsen A and the relatively small Prince Gustav Ice Shelf
followed. Larsen B will be next, and Dr. Scambos believes that the more southerly
Wilkins and George VI ice shelves may already have shrunk irreversibly.
In the May 28th issue of Nature, Environmental Defense Fund Chief Scientist
Dr. Michael Oppenheimer wrote that global warming might push natural, cyclical
processes within the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) over the top and contribute
to its collapse during the next 100 to 1,000 years. This could raise sea
levels by 4 to 6 meters, and it could take more than ten thousand years for
the WAIS to reform. Dr. Oppenheimer called the threat ì...too large
and irreversible to be relegated to a list of imponderables for consideration
at a later date.î
Regional warming in the Antarctic Peninsula is already taking its toll on
the marine food chain, and researchers are detecting a decline in krill
populations. (See The Antarctica Project newsletter, vol. 6, issue 1. )
The rhetoric over how to respond to greenhouse gas emission limits has been
dominated by the oil industry's questionable scenarios of economic hardship.
These scenarios do not take into account the cost of warming to the environment
and to our quality of life. It is now time for governments to sit down and
take this issue seriously instead of playing their political games. Write
to your government officials to express your dismay with their current actions
and demand that they take serious action.
Southern Ocean Whale Sanctuary Update
The International Whaling Commission (IWC) held its 50th annual meeting 16-20
May in Muscat, Oman. It was clear that the deadlock between the whalers and
anti-whalers continues, and that the whales are the losers. Whaling will
continue in defiance of the moratorium, including Japanese scientific whaling
in the Southern Ocean Whale Sanctuary (SOS). Japan and five Caribbean nations
proposed an immediate end to the SOS, although this was later withdrawn.
(38 NGOs charged that Japan has pressured small island nations to support
whaling.)
The IWC adopted a resolution urging Japan not to issue permits to kill 400-plus
minke whales in the Southern Ocean, but this is non-binding on Japan who
is exploiting its sovereign power to grant scientific research permits. The
whalemeat from this "research" will again be put on sale in Japan. The IWC
also passed a resolution asking Norway to stop commercial whaling in the
North Atlantic, but Norway has a legal "objection" to the moratorium, and
began a new whaling season on May 3rd.
A Resolution was adopted advising the Scientific Committee about the purpose
of the SOS, and recommending research on depleted whale numbers and environmental
change. The IWC specifically reaffirmed its commitment to conduct research
on chemical pollution and to continue its cooperative studies with CCAMLR
and GLOBEC on baleen whale prey and habitat.
A subcommittee was created to investigate reports of illegal whalemeat sales
in Japan after New Zealand scientists discovered that meat from protected
species (humpback, blue, fin, and sei whales) was on sale in Japanese and
South Korean whalemeat markets.
Update on NASAís Plan to Exploit Lake Vostok as
a Stepping Stone to Europa
The plan to penetrate the pristine waters of Lake Vostok in order to prepare
for a mission to Europa, one of Jupiter's moons, was presented at the annual
meeting of the Polar Research Board on May 1st by Dr. Frank Carsi, of NASA's
Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). There was no mention of conducting a
Comprehensive Environmental Evaluation (CEE) of the activity to evaluate
the likelihood of environmental impact, and thus conclude if the drilling
project could go forward without contaminating the lake. Dr. Carsi did not
respond directly to a question from TAP's Director, about whether consideration
had been given to abandoning the project at this time if a CEE concluded
that the technology was not available to ensure the sterility of the lake.
(Note that at the ATCM, Russia stated that a CEE would be conducted and
circulated for comment.)
Discovered in 1994, Lake Vostok is a freshwater lake the size of Ontario
buried by two and a half miles (4 km) of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. NASA
scientists estimate Lake Vostok's age at 35 million years. It may contain
microbial life, and if it does, its ecosystem will probably be totally unique.
An article printed in the 20 June 1996 edition of Nature estimated that this
lake has been completely isolated for 500,000 years.
The proposal to drill into Lake Vostok raises serious concerns, both substantive
and procedural. First is the need to preserve a pristine part of Antarctica.
TAP and ASOC believe that at a minimum, no drilling should be allowed until
technologies are developed that ensure there is no contamination of Lake
Vostok by foreign microbes, drilling fluids or any other contaminants. Second,
it is absolutely essential for the Treaty Parties to ensure that all appropriate
procedures are followed in accordance with international law, including the
Environmental Protocol.
Europa is one of the four largest Jovian moons, first seen by Galileo. It
is the smoothest object in the solar system, with a surface of frozen water.
NASA officials think the Jovian tides have thawed an ocean of liquid water
underneath the ice. Speculating that life may exist in this theoretical,
extraterrestrial ocean, NASA plans to send a robot, and to exploit Vostok
for a trial run.
NASA understands that a Europa mission must proceed with extreme caution.
Otherwise, contamination might corrupt the science and change Europa forever.
With a single mistake, that is precisely what could happen to Lake Vostok.
Therefore, it would be a grievous error to rush into this experiment. Although
it may be earthly, Lake Vostok, which probably contains some of the oldest
waters on this planet, deserves consideration in its own right. It is more
than just a test site.
http://www.asoc.org/
The Antarctica Project
The Secretariat for the Antarctica and Southern Ocean Coalition
(ASOC)
December 1999, Volume 8, Issue
3/4
REMARKABLE LAKE VOSTOK: A CASE FOR STRONG PROTECTION
Lake Vostok is an exceptional hydrological phenomenon located under 4km of
ice, 250 km in length and 50 km wide -- approximately the size of Lake Ontario
in the United States. The subglacial lake, which was discovered in the 1970s,
has depths ranging from 10-500 meters and is estimated to be at least 35
million years old and probably completely protected from any human impact.
Scientists are betting that unique forms of life, presently unknown to humans,
inhabit its waters.
The lake¹s uniqueness stems from its size, estimated age, and geological
properties. Due to its magnitude it hasn¹t frozen. The prospect of unknown
life forms, especially microorganisms, is one of the most compelling arguments
for penetration of the lake. Scientists believe it could be located on an
active tectonic rift, with warmer waters supporting potentially abundant
life. Assuming the lake is very old there is hope that an extensive sedimentary
record exists, which could help determine the lake¹s origin and address
larger questions such as its tectonic history.
A workshop held September 26-27 in Cambridge, UK to address the future of
Lake Vostok included representatives from ASOC, the National Science Foundation,
Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR), NASA, and scientists and
observers from around the world. The workshop focused on the merits of research
in sub-glacial environments in general as well as the particular situation
of Lake Vostok, and discussed the current technological and organizational
capacity to conduct this research. Needless to say, strong
political and economic interests were not absent among workshop
participants.
The workshop helped to define the current interests of national governments
and scientific sub-groups. NASA has demonstrated a keen interest in the lake
as a place to test some technology needed for their space exploration program.
NASA's agenda and timetable is driving the whole process by creating hype
regarding a drilling program to probe Lake Vostok. NASA would like to use
the lake as a testing ground for a planned 2003/04 mission to Jupiter, a
mission that would involve probing a similar frozen polar lake on one of
Jupiter¹s moons, Europa. Since the date is approaching rapidly, there
is a narrow window in which the proposed Vostok probe could be sunk into
the lake. The Russians view the lake as an opportunity
to maintain their leadership in Antarctic science and to gain financial
assistance for their Antarctic "Vostok" station where drilling was
stopped two years ago about 150 meters above the lake¹s surface.
[WHY?] Microbiologists would like to study life in extreme
environments -- especially if there are unknown varieties! The geologists
are divided -- all would like to get to the lake¹s underlying bedrock,
but for some the lake is just a big impediment.
Research on Lake Vostok can involve both non-intrusive methods and more direct
approaches -- such as drilling. Non-intrusive research (research without
actual lake penetration) involves techniques like remote sensing and radio
echo sounding. For drilling there are two options: the slower and dirtier
traditional drilling, which allows for a continuous ice core; and, the faster
and cleaner hot water drilling, which only allows for interrupted extractions.
NASA prefers the latter. However, there are numerous other drilling options
that wouldn¹t jeopardize the lake, including obtaining cores from the
ice flowing over it, on both the upstream and downstream sides.
Two central research issues for Lake Vostok are contamination of samples,
and contamination of the lake itself. Contamination can be biological or
chemical, and workshop participants discussed the basis for both. They stressed
that some criteria for acceptable levels of contamination should be established,
while NASA argued that its Planetary Protection standards are much higher
than those of the Antarctic Treaty System. In reality, there is substantial
speculation as to whether NASA¹s standards would be adequate for protection
of the lake.
ASOC outlined its viewpoint, that the current risks of intrusive research
to the ultimate scientific and environmental values of Lake Vostok are not
worth taking at least not anytime soon. ASOC suggested serious
consideration of establishing Lake Vostok as a protected area with enhanced
status under Annex V of the Protocol. ASOC questions the capacity of late
20th century technology to protect the lake and believes better methods will
evolve. Under any scheme put forward, however, a Comprehensive Environmental
Evaluation, as required by the Protocol on Environmental Protection, would
have to be produced and reviewed by all member governments, and there would
have to be substantial public participation in that process. ASOC also suggested
that scientists first consider research on one of the other 60-80 subglacial
lakes in Antarctica first.
What happens next for Lake Vostok remains up in the air. Discussions over
the organization of research at Lake Vostok are inconclusive. The National
Science Foundation has rejected NASA¹s funding request to develop the
Vostok probe. What is certain about the lake is its incredible uniqueness
and value to science. Among diverging points of view, vested political interests
are a central part of the equation and will color the final outcome. It is
obvious that Lake Vostok is precious to the entire world, and worth protecting.
A rush to drill into it would be
short-sighted.
http://www.asoc.org/
The Antarctica Project
The Secretariat for the Antarctic and Southern Ocean Coalition (ASOC)
April 2000, Newsletter, Volume 9, Issue
1
Antarctica and Climate Change
Reports and research supporting the reality of climate change continue
to mount, even though we are far from understanding the full consequences.
1998 was the hottest year on record and it seems that the 1990s -- based
on Antarctic ice cores and other scientific evidence -- is the hottest decade
of the millenium. Weather phenomena have been more extreme, with freakish
floods, droughts, hurricanes and tornadoes.
But what does the prospect of climate change mean for Antarctica? Since the
mid-1940s the average temperature on the Antarctic Peninsula has risen 3-4
degrees -- 10 times the global average. Meanwhile, the temperature on most
of the continent itself has increased only by roughly a degree over the same
amount of time. Global warming seems to be having a notable effect in this
area of the world.
A study submitted to the Journal of Glaciology in March 1999 by a team of
scientists, two from the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University
of Colorado, supports the widely-held belief in the scientific community
that ice shelves on the Peninsula are retreating. The investigation examined
"in situ" and remote sensing data and related a number of characteristics
of the shelves, such as calving of smaller, elongated bergs, associated with
rapid shelf retreat. The researchers noted that the mean melt season in the
Peninsula has increased by several days in the 1990s. They hypothesize that
the heightened melting is working to destabilize the ice shelves. As the
melt water forms ponds on the ice, it infiltrates into the shelf¹s naturally
occurring cracks, in turn creating fractures. The presence of melt water
ponds close to sites of shelf breakup and the scientific modelling of the
Larsen A and B ice shelves supports the overall hypothesis.
Ice shelf breakup has been evident in recent years with both the Larsen B
and Wilkins Ice shelf retreating alarmingly in 1998, while the Larsen A ice
shelf began disintegrating quite suddenly in 1995. In April, the second largest
iceberg ever broke away from the Ross Ice Shelf. Measuring 185 miles x 23
miles, it contains about 3.4 trillion gallons of fresh water. This can be
compared to the 550 billion gallons in the New York City reservoir
system.
Perhaps a more globally important question for climate change is related
to the massive East and West Antarctic ice sheets. TheWest Antarctic ice
sheet, measuring about 360,000 square miles, is the larger of the two. Both
sheets are composed of many ice streams, responsible for moving ice from
the interior of the continent toward the coastal sea. Recent data from a
joint U.S.- Canadian Radarsat satellite project estimates that for the West
Antarctic sheet, one system of ice streams alone can transport 19 cubic miles
of ice to the sea each year.
Scientists have speculated for some time that global warming could induce
the West Antarctic sheet to increase the rate of flow toward the Southern
Ocean. It has been estimated that if the ice sheet were to slip into the
sea, global sea levels would rise by roughly 17 feet, thus inundating coastal
regions everywhere, with enormous consequences for the planet, including
Antarctica. They surmise that the West Antarctic ice streams, which slide
along the continent¹s bedrock on a layer of liquid water and mud, could
speed up if temperatures increased.
The Radarsat data showed that the same kind of ice streams capable of
transporting ice from inside the continent to its periphery also exist for
the East Antarctic ice sheet. Before this time it was thought that the East
Antarctic ice sheet was attached to the continent¹s bedrock and therefore
such rapid conveyance was not possible. Scientists now believe that these
streams are also capable of rapidly transporting large quantities of ice.
However, since the physical dynamics of West and East Antarctic ice sheets
are presumed to be different, the link as to whether global warming would
speed up stream flow for the East Antarctic ice sheet is less clear.
There also is some data suggesting that the West Antarctic ice sheet has
been receding because of natural processes presumed to have started thousands
of years ago. Researchers from the University of Washington and the University
of Maine have used data collected from raised beaches and radar imaging to
calculate the historic position of the West Antarctic sheet. Their findings
indicate that it has both thinned and diminished since the last glacial apex
10,000 years ago. Roosevelt Island, situated in the Ross Sea, is now surrounded
by floating ice while the evidence suggests that around the time of the ice
age the ice was roughly 487 meters thick.
There are still many unknowns related to the topic of ice behavior in Antarctica.
According to Dr. Kenneth Jezek, a glaciologist from the Byrd Polar Research
Center, when referring to glaciers "there are mixed signals almost everywhere
you turn, with little consistent pattern." But for now, says Dr. Ghassem
Asrar, a scientist at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
on the theme, "We¹ve made a start!"
Decreases in sea ice around the peninsula are most likely hurting Adelie
penguin populations. Less than 30 years ago there were more than 15,000 Adelie
penguin pairs in the proximity of the U.S. Palmer Station. Today there are
approximately half that number ‹ 7,770 pairs.
The U.S. News and World Report recently ran an article linking changes on
the continent to global warming. It discusses the work of Bill Frasier, chief
scientist at Palmer Station, who believes the decrease in Adelie pairs is
attributable to a reduction in the extent of sea ice and increases in amounts
of precipitation, both as a result of warmer Peninsula temperatures. At
mid-century four out of every five winters brought extensive sea ice; now
only two in five bring the heavy ice. The Adelies count on this ice for their
food, since young krill find shelter underneath the ice during their first
winter. With less sea ice, this food source is decreased and could dramatically
reduce the Adelie population. Chinstrap penguins also feed on krill, but
since they seek krill in the open sea their populations are increasing probably
due to the shorter distance to open sea. Researchers have noted that Adelie
populations around Palmer have been falling since the mid-80s, while the
Chinstraps are thriving. The Adelies also are not able to adapt to greater
amounts of snow, which is now more common due to warmer temperatures bringing
more moisture. This species has continued to lay their eggs in regions where
the snow is the thickest, leading to the death of the chicks, once the extremely
cold meltwater arrives in the spring.
According to the report other species such as Southern Elephant seals, are
showing up in strange places. These seals typically raise their pups farther
north in warmer climes such as the Falkland Islands. Nevertheless, this past
season, 254 of them were spotted on two islands close to Palmer Station.
Also, fur seals were not found on the Peninsula before mid-century; however,
a few years ago research vessels discovered 2000 not too far from the Peninsula.
Furthermore, there is evidence that lichen and mosses on the Peninsula are
beginning to thicken in many places.
While there are clear indications that the workings of climate change are
beginning to emerge on the continent, there exist many unanswered questions.
Now it is of utmost importance that globally important science on the continent
is amply supported. Evidence alone of disintegrated ice shelves, rising
temperatures, and changes in flora and fauna warrants extensive examination
of what effects humans have produced and what effects they will continue
to produce on our planet, including Antarctica. There are currently great
gaps in this research, not the least of which is the study of Antarctica¹s
ice sheets, ice shelves and glaciers. Yet, with new scientific data, such
as NASA and the Canadian Space Agency¹s recent high definition satellite
images, a broader, more in-depth understanding of these changes will begin
to emerge, which will allow decision makers ample information to help protect
the Ice. Ultimately this requires action -- and tough decisions -- by
governments. The next negotiation under the Kyoto Protocol, which will takes
place in the Hague from November 13-24, is a good place to start.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Subj: | ASOC Position on Vostok |
| Date: | 3/2/01 7:04:02 AM Pacific Standard Time |
| From: To: bardsquill@aol.com (Kent Steadman) |
|
Early ASOC position on drilling at Vostok. By this time, the Russians had
already gotten to near 125m of the actual
lake?
http://www.asoc.org/
Lake Vostok Workshop: Drilling for Dear Life, England, September
1999
LAKE VOSTOK: TO DRILL OR NOT TO
DRILL?
Lake Vostok is to Antarctica what Antarctica is to the rest of the planet:
remote, pristine, and unique.
Matters that should be considered before deciding whether or not to drill
into Lake Vostok
* Research on subglacial environments is a legitimate and
important Antarctic scientific activity but it should not be the only basis
for deciding if or when to drill at Lake Vostok (or elsewhere).
* Late 20th century technology will arguably be obsolete
within a generation. Serious consideration should be given to the likelihood
that technological developments in, say 20-50 years, could significantly
reduce or perhaps fully avoid the risk of harmful impacts.
* The risks of intrusive research to the ultimate scientific
and environmental values of Lake Vostok are not worth taking. Since there
are 60-80 subglacial lakes in Antarctica, there are arguments that any scientific
drilling should be attempted somewhere else first.
* Lake Vostok is not suitable for use to further technological
research and development. Testing new technology at Lake Vostok with ulterior
purposes is unacceptable even if one of the results of this test would help
further basic science.
* A CEE should consider (1) the difference between pure
science from technology research and development; (2) the alternatives of
using other, smaller lakes; (3) a moratorium on any drilling into Lake Vostok
and (4) the merits of the "full protection" option for Lake
Vostok.
* There is a case for designating Lake Vostok as a protected
area with enhanced protection status under Annex 5 of the Protocol.
Conclusions
* ASOC is concerned that it has been decided a priori that
something must be "done" with Lake Vostok as soon as technically possible,
seemingly foreclosing the option of not drilling at the Lake.
* The most appropriate option to protect the ultimate
scientific and environmental values of Lake Vostok, would appear to be to
postpone drilling the lake for the indefinite future.
* Scientists interested in subglacial research should consider
a range of alternatives to drilling into Lake Vostok. This will require foresight
and forbearance.
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Space Invaders
Recent interest in Antarctica as a model for space exploration has raised
concern within the environmental and scientific communities that Antarctica's
scientific values might be compromised. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)
in Pasadena, CA has been contracted by NASA to develop an "Antarctica as
a Europa Analog" initiative. This proposed program will develop technologies
to explore and look for possible life in Lake Vostok, Antarctica, as a model
for exploring Europa, an ice-covered moon of Jupiter. As a matter of both
international and U.S. law, any possibility of using any part of Antarctica
must be preceded by scrupulous adherence to strict environmental assessment
procedures. The Antarctica Project believes that there are sound policy reasons
for not using Lake Vostok for this project at this time.
Lake Vostok (see vol. 5 issue 3 of The Antarctica Project newsletter) was
discovered under the ice sheet in central Antarctica. Because its waters
have been sealed off from the outside world for tens of thousands of years,
it is probable that they are among the most pristine on earth, probably harboring
ancient life forms. Lake Vostok's value to science is too important to be
compromised for the sake of finding a method for exploring other
planets.
The discovery of Lake Vostok was first reported by Russian scientists at
the 1994 meeting of the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR).
At that time, the Russians were seeking advice about how best to ensure that
foreign microbes, drilling fluids and other contaminants would not inadvertently
be introduced into the lake. A subsequent expert workshop, held at the Scott
Polar Research Institute in Cambridge, England early in 1995, concluded that
it would be imprudent to drill into the lake with existing equipment, and
recommended that drilling stop at least 25 m above the lake to
prevent the permeation of drill fluids.
The Antarctica Project and ASOC are very concerned that Lake Vostok will
be used as a "stepping stone" in the interests of developing this model,
and that proper environmental safeguards will be overlooked. We are also
concerned that in the rush to develop this model, the true scientific value
of Lake Vostok will be trivialized and compromised. We share SCAR's concern,
stated in their Recommendation XXIV-10 (1997), about using Lake Vostok for
experimenting "with drilling and sampling techniques that are not proven
to be contamination free," and agree that "any intrusive investigation of
the lake shall not in any way compromise [its] value" [to science].
In response to the NASA initiative, ASOC has sent letters to both NASA and
JPL urging them to consider alternate sites in their quest for discovering
viable procedures to explore Europa. If the decision is ultimately made to
proceed, we expect that all appropriate procedures, including full public
review of the proposal and environmental assessment documents, will be
followed.
If you would like to express your concern, write to: Dr. Frank Carsi, Jet
Propulsion Laboratory, NASA, Mail Stop 122-116, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena,
CA 91109, USA, and to Dr. Wes Huntress, NASA, 300 E Street, SW, Washington,
DC 20546. Please send copies of your letters to The Antarctica
Project.
For additional information, see Lake Vostok.