9/26/2007 1:33:58 P.M. Pacific Daylight Time

Note: I worked with an engineer at SAI (now SAIC) who told me they'd done computer modeling of this
for the CIA at the El Segundo office back in the early 70's. This is actually similar to one of the
scenarios that they came up with. There were three areas of the world that they figured would be the
flash point - the Middle East, Central America, and Southeast Asia - any one of which has been so
politically unstable for so long that almost any event could start WW III. They figured it would
start with some small conflict which would quickly drag the "superpowers" into it and that would be
the beginning of the end for all of so-called 'modern' civilization.

I'm not forwarding this to scare anybody, it's just to make you aware of how close we are and to get
some of you to THINK. If any of this, or anything similar to this, begins to happen, then it would
be prudent to not bury your heads in the sand and hope it goes away. It won't. But you CAN do some
things ahead of time (it's called being prepared - like the Boy Scout motto) to make it easier for
you to survive all this - and it IS survivable, if we're smart enough. We may have to re-learn how
our grandparents lived, without electricity and Wal Mart 'convenience' . . . but if they did it, we
can too.

If nothing else, you should have enough drinking water stored up for at least a week, maybe more.
When the electricity goes off and doesn't come back on for a few days (maybe longer), when food
prices go through the roof a few days before there's nothing left on the shelves (I've seen that
happen) and gas becomes so expensive that NOBODY can afford it, just before there's none at all,
then a lot of us will have to be looking at our neighbors in a new light - as either friend or foe.

Do you live in a 'community' of cooperative survivors, or a jungle like New Orleans the day after
Katrina?


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WHAT WORLD WAR III MAY LOOK LIKE

by Philip Giraldi

Neoconservatives are great observers of war and warriors, though they are sometimes not in complete
agreement about the numbering of the conflicts that they send other people's sons and daughters to
fight. Norman Podhoretz, the patriarch of the neocons, believes that the Cold War was World War III
and that the U.S. is now fighting World War IV against "Islamofascism." He intends to expand World
War IV by slating Iran as the next domino to fall to America's military might. Podhoretz undoubtedly
sees the current global conflict as something that is good and necessary, both containable and
winnable, but as his judgment on Iraq was fallible, his prediction of Iran's rapid destruction is
also unreliable. It might be useful to imagine just how war with Iran could play out if the Iranians
don't roll over and surrender at the first whiff of grapeshot.

It might start with a minor incident, possibly involving an American Marine patrol operating out of
the new base at Badrah near the Iranian border. The Marines are surrounded by superior Iranian
forces claiming that the Americans have strayed inside Iranian territory. The Marines refuse to
surrender their weapons and instead open fire. The Iranians respond. Helicopter gunships are called
in to support the Marines, and artillery fire is directed against Iranian military targets close to
the border. President Bush calls the incident an act of war and, in an emotional speech to the
nation, orders U.S. forces to attack. A hastily called meeting of the UN Security Council results in
a 17-1 vote urging the United States to exercise restraint, with only Washington voting "no." In the
UN General Assembly, only the U.S., Israel, Micronesia, and Costa Rica support the military action.
The U.S. is effectively alone.

In the first few days, overwhelming American air and naval superiority destroy Iran's principal air,
naval, and army bases. Iranian Revolutionary Guard facilities are particularly targeted and are
obliterated, as are the known Iranian nuclear research and development sites. Population centers are
avoided, though smart weapons destroy communications centers and command and control facilities.
There are nevertheless large numbers of civilian casualties and widespread radioactive contamination
as many of the targeted sites are in or near cities. Infrastructure is also hit, particularly
bridges, roads, and power generation stations close to known nuclear research centers and military
sites. The U.S. media, which had supported the administration's plans to engage Iran, rallies around
the flag, praising the surgical attacks designed to cripple Tehran's nuclear weapons program.
Congress supports the bombing, with leaders from both parties praising the president and commenting
that Iran had it coming.

The Pentagon and White House call the attacks a complete success, but Iran strikes back. With five
years to prepare, Iran has successfully hidden and hardened many of its military and nuclear
facilities, a large percentage of which are undamaged. The aircraft carrier USS Eisenhower operating
in the Persian Gulf is hit by a Chinese Silkworm cruise missile and grounds itself in shallow water
to avoid sinking. Three other support vessels are also hit and severely damaged when they are
attacked by small craft manned by suicide bombers. Pro-Iranian riots break out in Beirut, where the
government is forced to call in soldiers to shoot at the crowds. In the south of Lebanon, Hezbollah
fires salvoes of rockets into Israel. Israel responds by bombing Lebanon and Syria, which it blames
for the attacks. Iranian Shahab-3 missiles also strike Israel, killing a number of civilians. The
Israeli Defense Forces are mobilized, and troops are sent to the northern border. Syria and Lebanon
also mobilize their forces. Rioters in Baghdad attack US. .troops and the American embassy and are
driven back only after the soldiers open fire and call in helicopter gunships. Snipers attack
American soldiers all over Iraq. Shi'ites sympathetic to Iran sabotage Saudi Arabia's eastern oil
fields. The Saudi fields suffer some damage, and hundreds of alleged saboteurs are shot dead by
Saudi security forces. An oil tanker out of Kuwait is hit by a Silkworm close to the Straits of
Hormuz and runs aground. Another hits a mine planted by Iran. Insurers in London refuse to cover any
tankers transiting the Persian Gulf. Oil shipments from the region, one quarter of the world supply,
stop completely, and oil goes up to $200 a barrel. Wall Street suffers its biggest loss in 20 years,
with the Dow Jones index plummeting by more than 800 points.

The U.S. offers Iran a cease-fire, which Tehran rejects. Two days later, President Hamid Karzai of
Afghanistan is assassinated under orders from Tehran. Fearing that he will be next, Pakistan's
President Pervez Musharraf flees to Dubai. Order breaks down in both countries. The Pakistani army
declares a state of emergency. Several leaders in the Pakistani tribal areas that are sheltering
Osama bin Laden declare themselves independent. Fighting increases in Iraq with U.S. soldiers being
targeted by both leading Shi'ite militias. U.S. troops evacuate Baghdad, fighting their way out with
heavy casualties. There are reports of Iranian soldiers and militiamen massing at the border.
Rioters in Basra succeed in cutting the main roads leading to Kuwait that supply U.S. forces.

The U.S. scrambles to contain the damage, pressuring the Pakistani army to put down the riots and
secure the country's nuclear arsenal, while at the same time trying to restore order in Kabul
through the multinational force. Several NATO allies balk at using their soldiers in what they see
as a burgeoning civil war, and the U.S. suffers heavy losses in street fighting before withdrawing
to its bases. Taliban-backed militias take over much of Kabul and Kandahar. Afghanistan's
Mazar-i-Sharif, which is largely Shi'ite, declares itself part of Iran. Waves of Iranian soldiers
and militiamen cross the border into Iraq, where they are welcomed by the Iraqi militias. U.S.
troops are under siege countrywide and are forced to withdraw into their bases where they can be
supplied by air. The Iraqi government resigns and is replaced by a group of Shi'ite clerics. The
government in Lebanon falls and is replaced by a coalition headed by Hezbollah. A salvo of Iranian
Silkworm missiles sets the Saudi Arabian eastern oil fields ablaze. Saudi Arabia sends an urgent
message to Tehran declaring that it is "neutral" in the fighting and will not assist the U.S. in any
way. Kuwait sends the same message, as does Egypt. Kuwait refuses to allow the U.S. to use its men
and supplies at Camp Doha against Iran. In Bahrain, rampaging Shi'ite crowds depose Sheik Khalifa
al-Khalifa and set up an Islamic Republic which immediately demands that the U.S. Fifth Fleet
dismantle its headquarters and go home. The Dow Jones index loses another 1,000 points.

The U.S. attempts to get China and Russia to mediate with Iran to end the fighting, but they refuse
to do Washington any favors, noting that they had opposed the attack in the first place. Suicide
bombers attack London, Washington, New York, and Los Angeles. The attacks are poorly planned and
inflict only a few casualties, but panic sets in and the public demands that the respective
governments do something. The U.S. tells the Iranian government that unless resistance ceases,
nuclear weapons will be used on select targets. India and Pakistan are alarmed by the U.S. threat
and put their own nuclear forces on high alert, as does Israel. Russia and China also increase their
readiness levels to respond to the crisis.

Iran refuses to concede defeat, and the Iranian people rally around the government. The U.S. public
clamors for action. Oil prices continue to surge, and even the long term viability of petroleum
supplies is in question as the Straits of Hormuz continue to be closed. Another U.S. ship is sunk by
suicide attackers in the Persian Gulf. U.S. troops are under fire nearly everywhere in Iraq and in
Afghanistan. Anti-American rioting takes place in Jakarta, Kuala Lumpur, and Dhaka. The U.S.
consulate general in Karachi, Pakistan, is overrun and sacked. Forty Americans are killed, along
with hundreds of Pakistanis. The Pakistani army announces that it can no longer protect Americans.
There are frequent terrorism scares in a number of American cities, which are under red alert
security lockdown, though there are no new attacks. As a preventive measure, Muslim leaders and some
antiwar activists are arrested and detained at military prisons, including Guantanamo. Israel
continues to be bombarded from inside Lebanon and Syria. Its air attacks on targets in both
countries inflict major damage on civilians but are unsuccessful in stopping the rockets. Rioting
rocks the West Bank and Gaza. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas flees to Cairo. India threatens to
attack Pakistan if there is any question about the security of Islamabad's nuclear arsenal.

The United States uses a neutron-type bomb against the main Iranian nuclear research center at
Natanz, which it had already bombed conventionally and destroyed. It vows to bomb again if Iran
continues to resist. Iran is defiant and fires another wave of Silkworms at U.S. ships, sinking one.
Suicide bombers hit U.S. targets in Iraq and Afghanistan. Russia and China place their nuclear
forces on high alert. Pakistani militants take over parliament, aided by radical elements in the
army and the intelligence service. India launches a preemptive strike against the main Pakistani
nuclear centers at Wah and Multan, where the country's arsenal is believed to be concentrated.
Pakistan has hidden some of its nukes elsewhere, however, and is able to strike back by bombing New
Delhi. World War III has begun.