| Subj: | // Goma - grim example of what El Popo can do plus NASA confusion |
| Date: | 1/20/02 5:23:21 AM Pacific Standard Time |
PHOENIX FIVE EARTH CHANGE BULLETINS
January 19, 2002 by MW Mandeville
ITEM(S): Goma - grim example of what El Popo will do plus NASA
confusion
(ECB, January 19, 2002) The extensive sheet lava flows which have sent
a half
million people packing in Central Africa is a grim example of the kind
of
result which El Popo could easily create. If El Popo pops off along the
lines
of the Cosa Nostra Damus prediction, extensive sheet lavas are likely to
flow
into some portions of Mexico City as into Goma. In the case of
Mexico City,
we are talking about a metropolitan region which has something like 20
million
people in it. Mexican society would be catastrophically impacted under
the
burden of dealing with even just the disruption of 10% of the city.
As you should know, the Earth is just now passing through its perihelion
with
the Sun (closest orbital approach). During perihelion, Antarctica is
pulled up
the maximum possible amount towards the Sun in a broad zone which ranges
from
about Longitude East 10 degrees to Long. East 190 degrees (actually
this is
Long. West 170 degrees, but never mind the logical absurdities of how
humans
refer to locations on the planet). During this period of time, the
maximum
tectonic plate stress is felt in, where? up the great rift valley in
East
Africa to the Red Sea, across the Mediterranean and the Aegean through
Turkey
and into the Himalayas. As well, the Fiji- Papua Tectonic Arc should
be
feeling its oats.
In fact, all of this is true. The majority of the seismic activity
of note is
now in these zones and the Goma eruptions show us the great stress
of
shape-shifting which is currently active in Africa. The African continent
must
be bending and flexing downward, esp. along the rift zone of the East
Central
Valley System to produce the sheet lava flows. That sheet lava is most
likely
not expelled merely by gases from sunken ocean water, as is true in the
South
Pacific and the Coastal Volcanoes of the Americas, more probably it is
from
hydraulic pressure of the crust against the mantle.
For reasons which I cannot explain, there is currently also a large
percentage
of world major quake activity in western South America at the
moment.
In any event, extrapolating only from the angle of the Sun against the
Earth's
tilt and the frequent patterns of the past, expect to hear some more
from
Italy's volcanoes during the next three to four months, and then after
that
expect to hear from Carib Plate volcanoes, esp. El Popo, which probably
is
still merely in a warm-up phase since it began this modern round of activity
in
1996. A major eruption is still a strong possibility. We
are likely as well
to hear from two or three of the South Pacific volcanoes, and maybe two
of
three of Japan's volcs, at any time through to about June.
As the year progresses, the focal point of tectonic stress from the position
of
the Sun vis-a-vis the tilt of the Earth should slowly move towards the East
and
arrive over North America in about late Spring. That is the time when
we will
hear from North American volcanoes, if we are to hear from them at all
this
year.
Pam Wiseman and others sent me copies of info from NASA about a
"double-peaked
sunspot max" (see the article below). They still wont PUBLICLY admit
that it
is the planets which are peaking the output of the sunspots. (But
the space
program used to be guided by contracted (from private sources) forecasts
of
solar storms and spots which are based on planetary relationships). Go to
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm
and look at the sunspot chart for the past four months.
On the chart you can see the effect of the Oct 15 Mercury alignment with
the
Earth and its involvement with Venus through to the beginning of
November
2001. You can also see for the last week of December the spike caused
by the
Jupiter-Earth alignment. and the subsequent fall-off. There are two
other
spikes in there which I have not identified because I have not bothered
to
look. The spots should increase again shortly in correspondence with
the
weather forecast for the year which I made at the beginning of this January.
There are three other periods during the year when Sunspots should
temporarily
increase in
numbers.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Recent news on the sun cycles and how different they are-go to link to see
the
photos and graphs. >
>
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2002/18jan_solarback.htm >
----------
The Resurgent Sun
Evidence is mounting that some solar cycles are doubled-peaked. The
ongoing
solar maximum may itself be a double -- and the second peak has
arrived.
Listen to this story
via
<http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2002/images/solarback/audio/story.m3u>s
treaming audio,
a
<http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2002/images/solarback/audio/story.mp3>d
ownloadable file, or <http://science.nasa.gov/info/audio.htm>get
help.
January 18, 2002: Every 11 years solar activity reaches a fever pitch:
Solar
flares erupt near sunspots on a daily basis. Coronal mass
ejections,
billion-ton clouds of magnetized gas, fly away from the Sun and buffet
the
planets. Even the Sun's awesome magnetic field -- as large as the solar
system
itself -- grows unstable and flips.
It's a turbulent time called Solar Max.
Right: Sunspot counts for the current solar cycle peaked in mid-2000 and
again
in late 2001. Image courtesy David Hathaway, NASA/MSFC.
The most recent (and ongoing) Solar Max crested in mid-2000. Sunspot
counts
were higher than they had been in 10 years, and solar activity was intense.
One
remarkable eruption on July 14, 2000 -- the so-called "Bastille Day Event"
--
sparked brilliant auroras as far south as Texas, caused electrical
brown-outs,
and temporarily disabled some
satellites.
<../../news/subscribe.htm>Sign up for EXPRESS SCIENCE NEWS
delivery
After that, sunspot counts slowly declined and the Sun was relatively quiet
for
month-long stretches. Solar Max was subsiding.
But now, as 2002 unfolds, it's back. The Sun is again peppered with spots,
and
eruptions are frequent. Says David Hathaway, a solar physicist at the
NASA
Marshall Space Flight Center: "The current solar cycle appears to
be
double-peaked," and the second peak has arrived.
Scientists track solar cycles by counting sunspots -- cool planet-sized
areas
on the Sun where intense magnetic loops poke through the star's
visible
surface. Hathaway is an expert forecaster of sunspot numbers. "Sunspot
counts
peaked in 2000 some months earlier than we expected," he recalls.
The
subsequent dip toward solar minimum seemed premature to Hathaway, and indeed
it
was. Before long, sunspot counts reversed course and began to climb toward
a
second maximum that now appears to be only a few percent smaller than
the
first.
<http://science.msfc.nasa.gov/ssl/pad/solar/sunspots.htm>
Solar Max eleven years ago was much the same. A first peak arrived in
mid-1989
followed by a smaller maximum in early 1991. In fact, if the ongoing
cycle
proves to be a double, it will be the third such double-peaked cycle in a
row.
Left:
International
<http://www.spaceweather.com/glossary/sunspotnumber.html>sunspot counts
between
1975 and 1995 show that the last
two
<http://science.msfc.nasa.gov/ssl/pad/solar/sunspots.htm>sunspot cycles
also had
double-featured maxima.
During solar maximum, magnetic fields above the Sun's surface
become
impressively tangled, particularly near sunspots. Twisted magnetic fields
--
stretched like taut rubber bands -- can snap back and explode, powering
solar
flares and coronal mass ejections.
Sunspots are the most visible sign of those complex magnetic fields -- but
not
the only one. Another sign is solar radio emissions, which come from hot
gas
trapped in magnetic loops. "The radio Sun
is
<images/solarback/noaa_radio_flux_med.htm>even brighter now than it
was in
2000," says Hathaway. By the radio standard, this second peak is larger
than
the first.
Hathaway notes a widespread misconception that solar activity varies every
11
years "like a pure sinusoid." In fact, he says, solar activity is
chaotic;
there is more than one period.
Earth-directed solar explosions, for instance, tend to happen every 27 days
--
the time it takes for sunspots to rotate once around the Sun. There is also
an
occasional 155-day cycle of solar flares. No one knows what causes it. And
the
double peaks of recent solar maxima are separated by approximately 18
months.
<images/solarback/cutaway.htm>
The source of all this variability is the turbulent Sun itself. The
outermost
third of our star -- the "convective zone" -- is boiling like hot water on
a
stove. California-sized bubbles rise 200,000 km from the base of the zone
to
the Sun's surface where they turn over and "pop," releasing heat (generated
by
nuclear reactions in the core) to space. Below the convective zone lies
the
"radiative zone" -- a calmer region where photons, not mass motions,
transport
the Sun's energy outward. Says Hathaway: "The Sun's magnetic field is
generated
at the boundary between these two layers where strong electric currents
flow."
Right: This artist's concept of the solar interior reveals the
boiling
convective zone, the interface layer (where the Sun's magnetic field
is
generated), and the relatively calm radiative
zone.
[<http://science.msfc.nasa.gov/ssl/pad/solar/interior.htm>more]
Magnetic fields are produced by electric currents -- that is, charges
in
motion. The Sun itself is a conducting fluid. Our star is so hot that the
atoms
within it are mostly ionized; their nuclei are separated from their
electrons.
As a result, relative motions between neighboring layers of ionized gas
carry
currents and spawn magnetic fields. "The rotational velocity of the Sun
changes
suddenly near the convective-radiative boundary," says Hathaway. "The
velocity
shear is what drives the so-called solar magnetic dynamo."
Below: The false colors in this cutaway diagram of the Sun represent
different
gas velocities inside our star. Click on the image to
view
<http://science.msfc.nasa.gov/headlines/images/sunbeat/kta.mpg>a 3MB
movie of
the
16-month
"<http://science.msfc.nasa.gov/headlines/y2000/ast03apr_1m.htm>pulse"
at the
base of the convection
zone.
[<http://solar2.stanford.edu/~phil/PR/SSU_2000/Tachocline/>more]
Last year, scientists using a technique called helioseismology, which can
probe
conditions within the Sun much like seismic waves reveal the interior
structure
of our planet, announced that currents of gas at the base of the
convective
zone speed and slacken every 16 months.
"That's about the same as the time between the double peaks of recent
solar
maxima," notes Hathaway. Perhaps the two are connected. "It's hard to be
sure,"
he cautions, because the detailed inner workings of stellar magnetic
dynamos
remain a mystery. "Helioseismology of the Sun, which can probe beneath
its
visible surface, is still a young field. We need more time to
understand
completely how the internal rhythms of our star affect the solar
cycle."
Whatever the cause, a resurgent Sun is welcome news for many sky
watchers.
Solar eruptions can trigger one of the most beautiful spectacles on our
planet:
Northern Lights. If the Sun continues to storm, the skies could be alight,
off
and on, for many months to
come.
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Credits & Contacts
Author: <mailto:phillips@spacesciences.com>Dr. Tony
Phillips
Responsible NASA official: <mailto:ron.koczor@msfc.nasa.gov>Ron
Koczor
Production Editor: <mailto:phillips@spacesciences.com>Dr. Tony Phillips
Curator: <mailto:sng.curator@msfc.nasa.gov>Bryan Walls
Media Relations: <mailto:steve.roy@msfc.nasa.gov>Steve Roy
The Science Directorate at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center sponsors
the
Science@NASA web sites. The mission of Science@NASA is to help the
public
understand how exciting NASA research is and to help NASA scientists
fulfill
their outreach responsibilities.
Web Links
<http://science.msfc.nasa.gov/ssl/pad/solar/sunspots.htm>The Sunspot
Cycle --
predictions, history, and in-depth information from David Hathaway and
the
NASA/MSFC solar physics group. See
also,
<http://starchild.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/StarChild/questions/question17.html>What
is
the Solar Cycle? from NASA/Goddard's "StarChild"
and
<http://www.spaceweather.com/glossary/sunspotnumber.html>Sunspot Numbers
from
SpaceWeather.com.
Up & Downs: Solar maxima come every 11 years, but the ferocity of solar
activity
isn't the same each time. The 11-year peaks seem to be modulated by an
even
longer cycle, perhaps 100 years or more in length. During one notable
trough
called the "Maunder Minimum" very few sunspots were seen for 6
consecutive
solar cycles between 1645 and 1715 -- and Europe was plunged into the
"Little
Ice Age." Click to
view
<http://science.msfc.nasa.gov/ssl/pad/solar/images/ssn_yearly.jpg>sunspot
counts
recorded during the past 400
years.
<http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/>NOAA sunspot numbers and 10.7
cm radio
fluxes -- see for yourself the double-peaked character of the current
solar
cycle.
<http://www.spaceweather.com/solarflares/topflares.html>The Most Powerful
Solar
Flares ever Recorded -- (SpaceWeather.com) For reasons scientists
don't
understand, the most powerful solar flares erupt most often during the
waning
phases of sunspot cycles. Two of the strongest flares on record happened
in
early-2001 when the sunspot number was temporarily
declining.
<http://science.msfc.nasa.gov/headlines/y2000/ast03apr_1m.htm>Sun's
got the Beat
-- (Science@NASA) Helioseismologists discover a curious 16 month rhythm at
the
base of the Sun's convection zone.
More helioseismology
links:
<http://science.msfc.nasa.gov/ssl/pad/solar/p_modes.htm>Surface Waves
and
Helioseismology, from
Science@NASA;
<http://www.spaceweather.com/glossary/farside.html>Helioseismic Holography,
from
SpaceWeather.com,
<http://science.msfc.nasa.gov/headlines/y2000/ast22dec_1.htm>Watching
the Angry
Sun -- (Science@NASA) Solar physicists are enjoying their best-ever look
at a
solar maximum thanks to NOAA and NASA
satellites.
<http://istp.gsfc.nasa.gov/earthmag/dynamos2.htm>Origin of Earth's
Magnetism --
like the Sun, our planet has a magnetic
dynamo.
<http://istp.gsfc.nasa.gov/earthmag/dynamos.htm>The Dynamo Process
-- the
basics
<http://www.spacedaily.com/news/earth-magnetic-99b.html>Planetary Dynamo
on a
Desk -- (SpaceDaily.com) magnetic dynamos are hard to study because they
are
hidden deep inside stars and planets. An innovative device allows
one
scientists to study a dynamo on his desktop.
----------
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