12/16/02 8:57:27 AM Pacific Standard Time
Let me begin by saying that I'm working with the data that's made available at www.zetatalk.com, trying to do some rough calculations to determine if the probability of the PX threat can be more accurately determined by crunching some numbers against what information is available to see if the data provided falls within the realm of possibility. Let me also add, that I am not the best qualified person in the world to do this, but as nobody else has bothered to make any serious attempt to analyze the available data, I figured I might as well kick the ball into play. I encourage you (and others) to play with these figures to see what results and determinations you independently arrive at.
It was given by zetatalk that PXs' passage through the inner solar system (given as the diameter of Saturn's orbit = 9.53 AU *2 = 19.06 AU) would take roughly about 3 months). or an average of .00872 AUs/hr. I've also roughly determined from their material that it's closest passage to the sun will be approx. .04 AUs, however it could potentially come as close as .37 AUs. Zetatalk claims that gravity has a push component to it, which is strongest near the equatorial region of a celestial object such as a star, planet, solar system or galaxy, which explains why orbital equilibrium is usually only found in planetary rings, solar ecliptics and galactic spirals as opposed to spheroidal orbital shells. As such, zetatalk states that as PX approaches the inner solar system, at a distance of 9.1 billion miles (to be reached the first of March) PX's velocity is gradually slowed and its trajectory slightly deflected (similar to bringing two similar magnetic polarity's together). By the time it reaches a distance of 9.53 AUs it may be travelling faster than .00872 AU/hr., however it may continue to slow as its gravitational repulsion force increasingly conflicts with the sun's as the proximity between the two bodies decreases, possibly bringing it's velocity slightly below that of .005 AU/hr. At an approximate distance of .04 AU the sun and PX's gravitational pull and repulsion forces are suppose to balance, keeping PX from slamming into the sun, however PX's inertial momentum carries it past the sun. where the compressed repulsion force, overcoming the gravitational pull between the two bodies, provides sufficient force to accelerate PX out of a stable orbit.
It is also given by zetatalk that PX (which is stated to have a diameter and mass approx 5x that of the Earth) will continue past the sun in the general direction of Saggitarius for an approximate distance of 141.84 AUs for roughly 2 years and 3 months before the sun's gravitation pull cancels it's momentum and velocity. It is said to linger near this "back-end" perihelion, which is approx. 1/4 the distance of that of sun and the other foci "Nemesis" for 3 years, 6 months before picking up velocity on it's return trip towards the sun, making its passage through the inner solar system around 2011-12. It then continues back towards the Legrange point from where it first arrived, where the sun and it's dark twin's ("Nemesis") gravitational fields cancel each other out. It is said to linger there for 1812 years before repeating the cycle with "Nemesis" serving as the alternate focus.
It would be an interesting exercise to determine what PX velocity would be required at an approx. distance of .04 AU to achieve the back-end perihelion described (141.84 AU over a 8 year period). Again, as we are working with a lot of assumptions and approximate figures here, the best we can probably hope to achieve is to ballpark our calculations to determine if they fall within the realm of possibility. There is much to be investigated here.
Subject: PX email question
Fellow asks for your comments, please send me a CC too, or I would be glad to forward for you.
Subj: Re: Error? Confusion?
Date: 12/15/02 1:46:23 AM Pacific Standard Time
Sent from the Internet (Details)
been doing some math Saturday. At 0.04 AU the escape velocity is 210763 m/s, that is 758747 kph or 0.005 AU/h. If it passes the Sun faster, then it's bye-bye PX. At that velocity (but falling towards the Sun it accelerates !! ) it would bridge the gap from Neptune's orbit in (30.06 AU * 150e6 km/AU / 758747 km/h) hours is around 247 days. Nine months. So practically speaking it would have to have been at Neptune's distance out at least one year before May 2003 in order to ever return again. So there is something not right with the calculations Sentinel presented. I did of course not incorporate the drag effects of the Sun, but to my knowledge no quantitative data on that is available. Can you please submit this to him and ask him what he used to come to his conclusions?
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, 12 December, 2002 00:45
Subject: Re: Error? Confusion?
In a message dated 12/11/02 1:55:25 PM Pacific Standard Time, Emailerwrites:
your page pxmoons.htm
contains some confusion:
A perihelion of 141.84 AU and a closest approach to the Sun of 0.4-0.5 AU, that's outright contradictory. Please look at that more closely, one of them must be wrong.
peri-helion is Greek for 'upon the Sun' or closest to the Sun. And there's two entirely different values for that.
Beyond me these reckonings, but here is this from the source:
In the purest application of the terms:
perihelion = approx. .04(AU)
aphelion = 890.44(AU)
But these terms assume our sun (Helios) is the sole gravitational focus of the orbit or eclipse. If you base your calculations on this false assumption, then yes, it does not add up.
However, as I understand it, PXÂ´s orbit has two (physical) foci, Helios and itÂ´s dead twin "Nemesis" for lack of a proper name. They are approx. 878.6(AU) apart. Nemesis is at an 11 degree incline to the sunÂ´s ecliptic. At itÂ´s closest approach to the sun PX comes within .04 - .05(AU) of the sun. However, given itÂ´s mass and escape velocity of approx. .08(AU/hour) it continues in a relatively straight vector, instead of curving tightly around the sun near itÂ´s point of perihelion. At a distance of approx. 141.84(AU)the sunÂ´s continual attraction/drag on PXÂ´s escape velocity cancels it sufficiently for it to arc and fall back towards the sun, (the effective perihelion). It then again comes within about .5 (AU)of the sun on itÂ´s outward trajectory toward itÂ´s aphelion. It continues to what should normally be itÂ´s (effective) aphelion at approx. 374.3 (AU). However, instead of cycling back, the combination of itÂ´s momentum and "NemesisÂ´" gravitation attraction is enough to recapture it after lingering at this Legrange point for a lengthy period. The cycle then repeats itself, except with Nemesis serving as the primary focus. It can only be assumed that the perinemeson and apnemeson would be very similar to the perihelion and aphelion.
Note: In recent news, an expended Saturn rocket booster unexpectedly showed up in Earth orbit after being in orbit around the sun for several decades. By late fall it was expected to transfer back into a helioscentric orbit again after lingering at the Legrange point between the Earth and Sun for some time. I believe the formula used to calculate this rocket-boosterÂ´s bifocal orbit would be similar to that which would be used to determine PXÂ´s bifocal orbit.