Subj: Minor magnetic storm, 2 M-Class flares
Date: 2/21/00 5:29:57 AM Pacific Standard Time
From: (New Millennium)
To: (Newmill)

At the beginning of the day today (0001 UTC) the first expected magnetic
disturbance began interacting with Earth's magnetosphere. Thus far, the
fluctuations and overall levels are minor to moderate ... but it will
take until the end of the day today into early tomorrow for us to know
for certain whether the majority of the material in the full halo CME
missed Earth or not.

This minor to moderate activity could be associated with the halo CME
that occurred just before the full halo event, which (also) looked at
least partially geoeffective and was reflected in the small Proton
enhancement that occurred first, but was later followed by the larger
Proton enhancement from the second more geoeffective CME. If the
magnetic activity follows the same general pattern as the Proton
enhancements, then we may see a more drastic magnetic impact later today
or tonight.

If the activity does not intensify significantly by this evening, then
it is likely that despite the impressive visual appearance from
SOHO/LASCO, the full halo event mostly missed the Earth. This will be an
ongoing problem throughout the solar maximum this year, as the
SOHO/LASCO instrumentation is not accurate enough and from enough
different angles to make the level of impact prediction any better.

Planetary magnetism values are averaged from sources around the world,
and then averaged out over periods of time. The Kp index we look at
represents 16 reporting stations in the northern hemisphere averaged
over a three-hour period of time. As with any event, the effects can be
much stronger in one location than in another ... and with this event
thus far, the effects seem to be a little stronger in the southern
hemisphere than in the northern hemisphere. Also the European
magnetometer readings have been more disturbed than the North American
(GOES) satellite readings.

Since last evening there have also been two more M2 class solar flares.
Recent SOHO and LASCO imagery is quite limited so far today, therefore
details about the CME production from these latest flares are unknown as
of yet.