Date: 12/12/99 2:28:28 PM Pacific Standard Time
I have been sitting back waiting to see if someone would post what
follows, but have not seen it so far. The following is pure speculation
based on what is allegedly known to date:
One of the most disturbing aspects of the crash of Egypt Air Flight 990
is the mysterious dive to 16000 feet and then the climb to 24000 feet
before the fatal plunge into the Atlantic. Independent investigators
have been baffled by this since the radar data was announced. It seems
There is good reason for this consternation, simply, it never happened.
Not only did 990 not climb from 16000 feet to 24000 feet , it is not at
the bottom of the Atlantic!
Lets look at the alleged facts:
1. 990 began a controlled decent from cruise altitude.
2. There were no instructions from ATC to do so and no calls to ATC
from 990 requesting said decent.
3. No sounds on CVR indicating an emergency requiring this decent.
4. No indications on FDR that there was a mechanical reason for this
5. No indications from NTSB that there was any emergency "talk"
recorded on CVR.
6. No indication from NTSB that a cabin call was made to the cabin
from the cockpit.
Lets break this down:
1. Perfectly good airplanes never dive from cruise without a reason.
2. A pilot making a emergency decent will call ATC as he is diving.
He has to avoid traffic. Its an impulse, he'll do it without thinking.
The only ways a call is not make is radio failure or the pilot(s)
intentionally don't make the call.
3 & 4. Emergency decents are the result of an emergency. The 767 has
a master alarm system and several alarm subsystems, yet none are heard
on the CVR , no mechanical failure is noted on the FDR.
5. There are not reports of emergency chatter in the cockpit. Pilots
talk about what to do in an emergency.
6. In a real emergency, the Pilots will be on the horn to the cabin
to get the cabin crew to prep the passengers. Not only that the cabin
crew would have been on the horn to the cockpit asking what was
According to the information released by the NTSB, the FDR and CVR
indicate there was NO EMERGENCY ABOARD THE AIRCRAFT!
I invite any other pilots reading this to tell the world your cabin crew
would not have been on the interphone with you within seconds of you
pushing over to a max thrust decent.
Bottom line: Based on what we have been told so far, the initial decent
was on purpose
Lets look into the next series of events:
1 990 descends from 30,000+ feet AMSL to 16000 ft (approx.) AMSL
2 During this decent the engines are not throttled back, they are
3. At 16000 Ft AMSL (approx.), the now powerless aircraft starts a
climb to 24000 ft AMSL (approx.)
4. After reaching 24000 ft AMSL (approx.), the aircraft again noses
over and plunges into the Atlantic.
5. At no time is any of this discussed the cockpit.
6. At no time does the Cockpit talk to the cabin.
The odds of the above events happening are so high as to render the
events practically impossible.
A simpler explanation is that the did not happen!
Lets look at how FAA Radar systems work for a clue:
1. FAA Radars do not normally paint the skin of the aircraft, they
respond to the transponder on board the aircraft, that received the
Radar signal and transmits a coded radio signal back to all receiving
radar stations. Flight 990 would have been issues a High Altitude
Atlantic transponder code. The pilots set the set with a unique 4 digit
code that tells ATC : Hi, I'm Egypt Air Flight 990, I'm right here, and
my altitude is X. The transponder is equipped with mode "C" which means
it gets a reading from the flight Altimeter and feeds that data out on
the modulated radio signal from the transponder.
2. FAA Radars can paint skins, but are normally not used in that mode
because it would pick up all traffic, IFR VFR, Mil,
Ground clutter, etc. Way too much information for the Center controller
(or departure probably in this case) to deal with.
How to make a 767 disappear:
1 You need two 767's
2. Decoy 767 Number two intercepts flight 990 by coming in from the
East at an altitude of 100 feet. This way it is not a Radar target to
anything but surface vessels.
3. At a predetermined time or GPS position, or through not aircraft
communications ( A good walkie talkie would have done), The real 990
begins its decent, the decoy begins his climb (empty, max thrust ). At
16000 feet AMSL real 990 switches off his transponder and the decoy
switches on his.
4. FAA Radar now sees what was a rapid decent, turn into a climb.
5. Real 990 is no longer an FAA Target, drops to the deck and
proceeds to parts unknown. FAA paints decoy as Flight 990.
6. Pilot of decoy, retards throttles, allowing speed to decease. At
safe speed bails out. Aircraft climbs until it stalls and gravity does
Sound crazy? Yes, but somewhat less improbable than some of the theories
For those of you wondering if 990 had onboard something very important,
that was needed in Egypt, and who feel there were people who wanted to
make sure it didn't get there, can you think of a better way that
decoying your enemy?
Add these items to your analysis:
1. Only one body recovered to date.
2. Data plates missing from FDR
3. Engines shut down? Well yes if you need to get out, but not if you
want to live.
4. Suicidal pilot? The rest of the crew would have broken down the
cockpit door, they are not bank vaults. That would have been picked up
by the CVR.
Other countries do not have the sophisticated equipment to make a really
good set of fake CVR/FDR data. This could explain why there is so
little there. Record the fakes, with fake time stamping, pull the power,
load them into the decoy, make sure the circuit breakers are pulled from
their power supply, and bingo.
Wait, you say, how do you sync up the times. Hey departure times are
iffy at best. Best way is to intentionally delay yourself, then when
its after your scheduled departure time, you'll get out when you want to
since its after midnight, ATC is less busy and they know you are already
late. Not only that, but if you think you are hunted, well, why help the
other guy and stay on a published schedule.
Or Maybe not......